000
fxus66 klox 070115 aaa
afdlox

southwest california area forecast discussion...updated
national weather service los angeles/oxnard ca
515 pm pst mon feb 6 2012

updated aviation section

.synopsis...
rain...mountain snow...cooler temperatures and gusty winds are
expected tuesday as a winter storm tracks south across our area. a
few showers may last into wednesday morning...mainly over interior
areas. a ridge builds into the region thursday and friday with
breezy offshore winds...warming to above normal temperatures and
clear skies.

&&

.short term (today-thursday)...
weak ridging aloft and breezy offshore flow has kept temperatures
above normal today...but with ample clouds ahead of the approaching
storm...we are running about 2-5 degrees of cooling from yesterday.

a large cold front associated with a deep 965mb low pressure
system...currently about 1200 miles west of san francisco...will
move down the california coast tonight and tuesday. strong southerly
flow ahead of the front has generated a large band of clouds and
rain just off the coast...but this band will lose some steam along
the way as the parent low moves northward. nevertheless...central
and southern california is still in store for gusty winds and
precipitation later tonight and tuesday...and well below normal
temperatures.

the brunt of the storm will be focused over slo and sba
counties...where the strongest winds and higher rainfall totals are
expected. gusty southeast winds will start late this evening...with
moderate rain expected just after daybreak..then continuing into
early afternoon. wind advisories blanket those counties tonight into
tuesday...with warnings in effect for the mountains where
potentially damaging gusts over 60 mph are expected. rainfall totals
are generally expected to range between 0.50 and 1.00 inches...with
local amounts up to 2.00 inches over the favored mtns. snow levels
should be high enough to not produce much in the way of snow.

over los angeles and ventura counties...gusty south winds will begin
tonight and last into tuesday afternoon...then weaken and shift to
the east tuesday night into wednesday. rainfall totals should be
less than their northern cousins...and look to range between 0.10
and 0.50 inches...with local amounts to around 1.00 inch in the
favored mountains and hills like the santa monica mtns and near the
sba county border. the low level southeast flow keeps the
possibility of rainfall totals under a quarter of an inch in some
spots. snow levels will be a little squirrely..generally between
6000 and 7000 feet...with higher levels with the heaviest
precipitation...and lower levels just before and after through
wednesday morning. in fact...with the flow shifting to the east late
tuesday night and staying moist...showers with snow levels down to
4500 to 5500 feet are expected over the interior slopes of la/vtu
counties and the antelope valley through wednesday morning. as a
result...winter weather advisories have been posted for the winds
and snow...but snow totals will be on the lower range of those
thresholds.

things dry out quickly wednesday afternoon with the northeast
flow...and temperatures should recover nicely to just under normal.
high surf is also expected from a large swell generated from our
pacific storm...especially to the exposed central coast. ridging
aloft and strengthening offshore flow will bring further warming to
above normal on thursday...and winds may even approach advisory
strength over the la/vtu mtns and some choice valleys thursday
morning.

.long term (friday-monday)...
temperatures level out on friday...as the ridge breaks down and the
pattern shifts some. extended models hint at a few small troughs
passing through the state through the weekend...and while they look
dry at this point...a lot can happen between now and then. we should
see some cooling regardless...and probably a few clouds.

&&

.aviation...07/0115z.

north of point conception...vfr conditions will gradually
deteriorate throughout the night. ceilings at or below 5000 feet
will develop between 04z and 07z...with mvfr category developing
between 08z and 11z in rain. periods of ifr conditions in moderate
rain are possible after 18z tuesday.

south of point conception...ceilings at or below 5000 feet will
develop after 09z...with mvfr conditions developing after  13z
tuesday in rain.

klax...ceilings at or below 5000 feet will develop between 14z and
17z...with mvfr conditions developing after 20z tuesday in rain.
there is a 40 percent chance of east winds exceeding 10 knots
between 16z and 22z.

kbur...vfr conditions are expected through at least 17z...with
ceilings dropping to or below 5000 feet between 14z and 18z tuesday.
mvfr conditions could develop as soon as 23z tuesday.

&&

.lox watches/warnings/advisories...
high wind warning (see laxnpwlox).
gale warning (see laxmwwlox).
wind weather advisory (see laxwswlox).
wind advisory (see laxnpwlox).
small craft advisory (see laxmwwlox).
special weather statement (see laxspslox).
marine weather statement (see laxmwslox).

&&

$$

public...kittell
aviation...hall
synopsis...bartling

www.weather.gov/losangeles

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion